JOAMS 2025 Vol.13(1): 15-21
doi: 10.18178/joams.13.1.15-21
doi: 10.18178/joams.13.1.15-21
Analysis of International Gold Prices Using ARIMA, SVR with Linear Regression
Hang Zheng
School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
Email: hangzheng@link.cuhk.edu.cn
*Corresponding author
Email: hangzheng@link.cuhk.edu.cn
*Corresponding author
Manuscript received February 18, 2025; revised March 1, 2025; accepted March 20, 2025; published April 1, 2025.
Abstract—As an important hedge asset and investment variety, gold has relatively stable value and wide market influence. The decisions made by people, businesses, and nations regarding their investments will be significantly impacted by the fluctuations in gold prices. Therefore, the analysis of international gold price is of great significance. The goal of this paper is to improve the existing gold price forecast models and analyze the daily gold price of US Dollar in the particular period by a hybrid model. This paper uses Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to estimate the error of different models. Through a brief review of current research techniques on global gold price prediction, we may incorporate their benefits and reduce the errors that may exist in the single model and create a new hybrid model to enlarge the presicion of forecasting the gold price. The improvement of the hybrid model will relatively impact the modeling accuracy of gold price forecasting.
Keywords—forecast, gold price, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), Support Vector Regression (SVR), linear regression, hybrid model
Cite: Hang Zheng, "Analysis of International Gold Prices Using ARIMA, SVR with Linear Regression," Journal of Advanced Management Science, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 15-21, 2025.
Copyright © 2025 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY-4.0), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the article is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
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